tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-26608857348043383582024-03-05T03:14:22.435-08:00The Journal of World IssuesAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-43866501070439263742016-12-13T18:35:00.002-08:002016-12-13T18:58:32.918-08:00The Syrian army’s recovery of Aleppo and defeat in Palmyra: A mixed report of victory and defeat side-by-side<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">On the 12th of December 2016 the Syrian
Arab Army has advanced into the bulk of the former areas held by rebels and
several offspring groups of the Al Nusra Front in the Eastern part of the city.
Up to the last reports, there is a remaining enclave South-east of Aleppo.
Still the smell of the final recovery of Syria’s second city and economic hub
was being felt since yesterday, when local residents celebrated the retake of
the city from the rebel forces.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Only weeks ago the Syrian regime controlled
around 85% of the urban area. An ever advancing movement enabled the army to
take district by district off the insurrectionists. Joined by allies such as
the Syrian Kurds, the Hezbollah, and the Russians along them, the regime has
recovered the whole metropolitan area, except of one remaining enclave of armed
branches that did not follow the general withdrawal of their brothers in arms,
all willing to draw back to the Idlib province under their control still. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The all so long awaited victory might have
fallen short in the media, as simultaneously to that, the ancient city of
Palmyra, fortress of the desert retaken last year, fell back to the Islamic
State along some airbases in the area that had been secured in the past and
taken in a very costly manner and with a lot of Russian military support. Now
back under their control, the frontline has again shifted in the central area
of the country. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Firstly there are generally speaking
improvements in the city of Damascus, and its outskirts, which have been
retaking some enclaves either by force or by an agreement of withdrawal. As
such the major East Ghouta area has lost some territory to the government. It looks
as if the security has seen important improvements in those regards.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">A defeat and a victory, or the other way
around sure gives a mixed result at the end of the day. Still the psychological
impact of the surrender of the main city under insurgent control has had its
share. The Idlib province and the areas close to the Syrian-Turkish border
taken from the IS are there to stay, unless the army and its allies undertake a
military enterprise starting east from Aleppo. The further they could approach
the governmental held enclave of Fouad, the sooner the remaining northern bulk of
rebel held territory could see heavy losses coming soon. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nevertheless the battle is far from over,
especially if you consider how a gain can be undone in matter of days or hours.
Whence the IS continues its retreat in part of its Iraqi held territory in and
around Mosul, many fighters are being shifted to the areas around Palmyra in a fashion, which evidently took the Syrians by surprise. Thus the
retake might give more headlines for Damascus and Moscow, which now
have been overshadowed by its recent fall.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">While the UN Security Council overall seems
to be quite unhappy for the success of Bashar Al-Assad, as it could be read by
the numerous times that Russia and China have vetoed the resolutions in recent
days and weeks, unsuccessfully urging for a truce in the Syrian city. Otherwise
they always emphasized the humanitarian crisis, etc. in order to call into question
the liberation itself. It looks as if a defeat of a “moderate rebel” always
will be put into that light, while the battle of Mosul clearly is put forward
without the slightest concern for the civilian or armed population among them.
As the veto power of the Security Council today favours the Russian and Syrian
side, the Western media have saturated the web with the view of the people
trapped inside the war. There were allegations about massacres made by the
Syrian Army, lacking any proof attached, and even the alleged executions of
civilians. All these punchlines are solely there to distract of the obvious
superiority of the Syrian army over the Western puppets eager to topple the <i>evil dictator </i>of Bashar Al-Assad. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Their failure comes short to the
expectations made by their sponsors, one of which are the US-Americans. The new
president-elect has clearly stated his wish to cease the supplies to these
rebels despite that the Congress has been pushing a bill contemplating the further
arms supplies and money to the insurgents on behalf of the US. This outgoing
Democratic administration will do what remains within their reach to help those
<i>trapped </i>inside this war. Let’s see
how Trump and his Secretary of State nominee will think about this and other issues
pending in January 2017. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The current conditions, in favour of the
Moscow-Damascus axis are in the verge of reversing the trend and give the
government the advantage it had been looking for. Then also the Russian ally
has been pushing to maintain their presence in the Mediterranean Sea and with
airbases in the coastal area. If the Western powers manage to rearm and the local
forces regroup again in their frontlines, it could be again a long time before anyone
can call any advance, may it be with the Islamic State or the motley-crew-like
groups operating on the ground. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">For now the major victory of Syria has been
accomplished: the retake of the city of Aleppo and its outskirts. Now comes to
see if the remaining areas are likely to fall too, or how long will it take to
the Syrian forces to completely regain the sovereignty and territorial integrity
that any country wishes to have.</span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-31912126411125802042016-11-16T11:43:00.000-08:002016-11-16T11:50:58.486-08:00The last tour of Obama to Europe before the new era of Trump<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Now that the world has slowly got
accustomed by the fact that Donald J. Trump is the president-elect of the
United States of America, it seems reasonable to think that the international has
shifted , or will so, beginning on the 21</span><sup style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">st</sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;"> of January 2017, when he
will make his oath as the 45</span><sup style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">th </sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">president. Until then the outgoing lame
duck Barack Obama will be making his last moves as a Democratic leader in the
White House. One of them being his last trip to Europe, which started in
Greece, where he met Prime Minster Alexis Tsipras, surrounded by a massive
rally protesting against his visit. His trip which started in Hellenic soil,
will lead him further to Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">For his farewell tour, Obama comes with a
lot of assuring messages for his European counterparts, within a very delicate
timeframe. The electoral promises held by the republican president-elect have
raised some eyebrows in several capitals, and also at the NATO, led by
Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who seems particularly concerned about the future
of the organization he represents. If the new policies of Washington, under
this new administration was to severe the expenditures into the organization,
as being its main contributor, it could call seriously into question its permanence
as such, and its viability militarily speaking. Thus the worries which Barack
has to try to appease somehow in this last tour. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">The Trade Agreements between the US and the
European Union also went sour lately, again putting the feasibility into doubt,
if ever the biggest consumer market, made up by both of them, were to be
merged. This seems more remote than ever, considering the new ideas of
protectionism rising in the Northern American nation. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Hence the new uncertainty remains whole, as
of the state of affairs worldwide and in the US in late January of next year.
Will there be the massive expelling of illegal aliens back to Mexico and
Central America? Will the border be effectively be sealed off by a gigantic
Wall from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico? Who will be paying for its
expenses? And furthermore, who will be in charge of what on the Hill? </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Obama meanwhile takes advantage of the time
remaining as a head of state, and will try to reach whatever intermediary result
he can achieve, whether it may be in Syria, Yemen or elsewhere, before the new
team will take over the controls. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">It seems as if the nominee for the post of Secretary of State has been between the former US Ambassador John R. Bolton, having served shortly before the United Nations under the administration of Georg W. Bush, or Rudolph Giuliani, former mayor of New York. Both of the have had hard stances regarding international affairs, but certainly the one more embedded into this is Bolton. He not only withdrew the signature of the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court on behalf of the US, but he also claimed several times his personal considerations about the UN, which he despises as a whole.</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">He dismisses the international law as such, seeing before anything else, the sole interests of the United States. As much as this can be of help to that purpose the UN is welcome to coexist in the world affairs. But beyond that it is as insignificant as can be. Combining the viewpoints of Trump himself, added to the likely Secretary of State Bolton, things might get sour in years to come.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-size: medium; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: justify; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;">Whomever shall step into these shoes, the new era has started worldwide. The former establishment, warrantied by the continuity of Clinton dynasty, has since decades set the rules to follow. It may be risky to try speculating about the contours of this new age to come. What is sure is that nothing is the way it used to be anymore, or will be.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 18.4px;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif;">This is a time of shifts and turns, which could take by surprise everyone. While waiting for the dust to settle, when everything will be clear to see, changes are being made as we speak within the team in the making of president-elect Donald J. Trump. Wait and see. </span></span></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-43195041641887477662016-11-09T16:25:00.004-08:002016-11-09T16:29:33.687-08:00The land sliding victory of Donald Trump in the midst of the fall of Hillary Clinton<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The ballots in the US elections have spoken
and since today the winner is known: Donald J. Trump. </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">As it looks, the people of the USA, -or rather
its biased electoral system-have resolved to make the </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">republican nominee the 45</span><sup style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif;">th</sup><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">
President of the United States.</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">The now president-elect has stood tall all the
way up to the White House, despite all the resistance coming from within the
Republican Party, and from the Democratic campaign of Hillary Clinton, among
other dissident voices from smaller formations. The media as a whole were
frankly speaking if not </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">with </i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">the
former Secretary of State, but certainly </span><i style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">against
</i><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12pt;">Donald Trump. This included the circle of artists, singers, the mainstream
media, the academics, etc., who were mostly united against a common foe.</span><br /><span style="font-family: times new roman, serif;"><br /></span><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Notwithstanding the storm, on the past 8<sup>th</sup>
of November the voters, the US-Americans showed off, at </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">key states such as
Florida or Ohio, which all of a sudden fell –at times by very slim margins- in
favour of Trump. Seemingly the voting polls were either totally wrong, or they
never reflected the whole horizon of how society was at. The persistence of an
establishment, blended together among politicians, businessmen, members of
Congress or Senate, and on top of this network the dynasty of the Clintons.
Those two privileged members of the Hill, which since the election of Bill
Clinton back in 1993 lasting over two mandates. Since then Hillary Rodham
Clinton had taken the lead, being nominated under the first mandate of Barack
Obama Secretary of State. Henceforth the presence and influence, let it via the
Clinton Foundation, the US diplomacy, or by connections within society, has
grown at least until the incident of the US Consulate of Benghazi, Libya, and
Clinton leaving her office.</span><br /><span style="font-family: times new roman, serif;"><br /></span>The political breach that Trump opened on
his unusual campaign using a selection of the finest of his personality: misogynist,
sexist and/or xenophobic comments, incitation towards violence, political intransigence
and attacks <i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">ad hominem </i><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">to anyone who happened
to be in the way of the tycoon in the rise. His most concrete political ideas,
which came quite late in the run, defined him as someone willing to break the
seal of the current state of affairs. Renegotiation of Free Trade Agreements,
i.e. NAFTA; TTIP, etc., ceasing to be the NATO main actor and material supplier,
closing the borders, thus introducing trade barriers, which have been
eliminated by the two-decades-old NAFTA Treaty, amongst other actions. Also
there is a different view upon the foreign relations, as it seems, where the
Russian president is treated in a totally new light, away from the sanctions
and containment policy upheld by the current Secretary of State John Kerry.</span><br /><span style="font-family: times new roman, serif;"><br /></span>In general the business world has woken up
in shock by the news of the president-elect Donald Trump. When the economy
today relies heavily on the fluctuations provoked by political events, here it
has not been any different. As Wall Street saw a phase of recovery in the last
days of campaign, now what is to be seen is the total opposite. Elsewhere in
the world, especially in areas under its economic hegemony such as Mexico, it
has provoked not only a lot of shock on behalf of most Mexicans, but also an
historical low in the exchange rate of the Mexican currency since 1995.<br /><span style="font-family: times new roman, serif;"><br /></span>Hence it is only natural that for instance
the Mexican government has stated measures to be taken, if the economic ties
should weaken or break between Washington and Mexico City, as it offers an <i style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">historic </i><span style="font-family: "times new roman", serif; font-size: 12pt;">opportunity to have trade with
some Asian emerging economies, for real. Not only on a written paper, whereupon
Mexico should and could have trade with around forty nations worldwide. Yet it
depends still in over 80% of its international trade on the US, let it be in
its exports as well as the imports. Now we have the chance to see elsewhere,
maybe even into South America, a long time unseen area for the Mexican economy,
despite being part politically of Latin America.</span><br /><span style="font-family: times new roman, serif;"><br /></span>We are facing a new age, most probably
having witnessed the last democratic president, now with a country in which the
Senate and the Congress are under the control of the Republicans. Such
conditions will give the presidency of Donald Trump margins for governing, unless
the very own Republican Party becomes his adversary when passing his policies,
whichever they may be. The president-elect Donald Trumo will be sworn January
2017, leaving Obama the time to make way in the White House until then.</div>
</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-69017908368946582392016-10-25T18:18:00.003-07:002016-10-25T18:30:13.255-07:00Venezuela: The failed coup d’état and the return in extremis of Nicolas Maduro from the Middle East<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtvaJE9YDRGb93yiv4bv8yQnQIN_NPDcpNfsCs1lKT7FuMhk2vnopvTcUqBpBLDMOgrMHpc2nx8MJ3mZUyFOrJM-Oh7UWybpMnuK4UIKiqmK8KqfxbdItKPRt-m4VMeqWvG9YKzNtn6aQ/s1600/venezuela-1460595_640.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="128" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtvaJE9YDRGb93yiv4bv8yQnQIN_NPDcpNfsCs1lKT7FuMhk2vnopvTcUqBpBLDMOgrMHpc2nx8MJ3mZUyFOrJM-Oh7UWybpMnuK4UIKiqmK8KqfxbdItKPRt-m4VMeqWvG9YKzNtn6aQ/s200/venezuela-1460595_640.jpg" width="200" /></a><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">P</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">resident Nicolas
Maduro has narrowly escaped a coup d'état today, operated by the parliamentary
opposition along with mass rallies on the streets. The president had been
travelling to OPEP and Non-OPEC such as Azerbaijan, Iran, Saudia Arabia, Qatar,
amongst other capitals. He started his Middle East Tour on the 23rd of October
2016 and added a leg, by meeting Pope Francis at the Vatican on his way back to
Caracas. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">His presence here
was of great importance, as the recent activities of the self-proclaimed Coalition
for Democratic Unity (Mesa de Unidad Democrática, MUD), and its member and current
Chairman of the National Assembly (Parlament, NA), Henry Ramos Allup, was
promoting not less than a political impeachment process, alike the one that hit
his former Brazilian counterpart Dilma Roussef. The title of the document could
be understood in the following terms: The NA agrees to start a proceeding
aiming at declaring the political responsibility in the major breach of the
constitutional order. Meant was the statement made by the CNE, the Venezuelan electoral
tribunal, which determined that the second phase for gathering of signatures
for the revoking referendum was to be cancelled. The reason being that there
were irregularities among the first 1% analysed by the latter. Henceforth the revoking
referendum could not possibly be held before February 2017. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">With the president
on his way back from Europe and Middle East, possibly aware of the activities
happening at the NA, Maduro landed in Caracas and met with a massive pro-government
rally receiving him at the Miraflores Palace. There he held a speech, where he
emphasized that the opposition shall never accomplish their goals, of turning
Venezuela into the next chain of successful coups in the region, in which centre-left
oriented governments were toppled among other strategies, through parliamentary
ways; namely Honduras, Brazil and Paraguay. His country would resist and
overcome any attempt to destabilize his socialist government. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">While the political
hit is underway, it has not had any real chance on the side of the Armed
Forces. The Commanders have reiterated their loyalty in regard with the
constitution and the president. Still the streets are filled either by pro- or
anti-government rallies, which have filled the avenues of the capital today.
This shows just how polarised the society stands today. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Maduro finds
himself in a quite complicated situation. He finds himself with several fronts
at the time. First is the internal opposition, which clearly have pushed more
and more aggressive moves to force him to leave office. Then again the petrol
prices are not being the most helpful in his fainting economic situation. With
an astronomic inflation affecting the economy and falling revenues from oil, he
could soon be short of funds for his vast social expenditure. This could also be
the reason of his trip to other oil-exporting countries. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">The membership of
Venezuela in the Southern Common Market (Mercado Común del Sur, Mercosur) has
been called into question lately by most of its members. The most keen have been
Paraguay and Brazil, who by now are leading the bid to expel the South-American
nation out of the economic block. Also Argentina, now run by Mauricio Macri has
blended into the side of the foes of Venezuela. The recent visit of Uruguayan
president Tabaré Vázquez to his Argentine counterpart at his residency at
Buenos Aires, shows that even the strongest ally of Caracas has been drifting
away from their original position. As it seems the recent events in the nation
have raised concern, even to the leftist president Vázquez. Thus all members of
Mercosur, except Venezuela herself, are agreeing on invoking the democratic
charter of the organization. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Formally speaking
Maduro is the pro-tempore president of Mercosur. Despite that all other Foreign
Ministries of the group have largely ignored any statement made by Caracas,
Uruguay “handed over” the presidency to Venezuela. Notwithstanding the efforts
made by Foreign Secretary Delcy Rodríguez, to maintain the fiction of that,
reality shows that far more than that is at stake. More than the pro-tempore
turn, their full membership seems to be called into question. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">The stakes are
high for the Venezuelan government, confronted with falling approval rates and a
bad economy. Back then the revenues of oil could balance the lack of any
activity not linked with petrol. It seems as if oil is the only business in
town, or at least the major one. After more than a decade under the rule of
socialists, the economic structures of the country remain poor, as the
dependence upon oil money for the government budget is overwhelming (above 90%).
So when this pillar collapses, the whole system gets out of balance at once. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">The arrival of the
Pope’s Envoy Monseigneur Emil Paul Tscherrig to Caracas on the 22<sup>nd</sup>
of October comes on behalf of the Pope in order to foster the dialogue between
the MUD and the government. Not only has the private interview at the Vatican
between Maduro and Francis shown the good spirits on both sides in achieving a
climate of dialogue among the Venezuelans. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Time will tell
whether the opposition will rather orchestrate a coup d’état via the parliament
or the Army, or sit at the negotiating table with the government, under the
mediation of the Vatican and the presence of former heads of states within a
Unasur-Committee. The question remains also on how long this status quo could possibly
last, before bursting into some form of chaos. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Could this be the
major and definite push of the inner and outer enemies of the Bolivarian
Revolution, perfectly aligned in their final hit, to reconquer Venezuela back
to the Washington Consensus, and put an end to this socialist regime? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">There are many
reasons this regime could crumble as fast as a house of cards, but some mistakes
are definitely accountable to some sort of mismanagement on behalf of late
president Chavez, and later on Maduro. Others are clearly signs of foreign
intervention, such as the pressure groups, non-existent in the past, or the
recent shift of the NA into the hands of a majority of the MUD. These cases would
have not been considered even possible under the administration of late Hugo Chávez.
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 13.5pt;">Until then the
normality seems to be restored while the ever going negotiating rounds and
confrontations between government and opposition continue. This analysis will
have to be continued, as soon as new events come to rock this South-American
nation.</span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-16345313186580493482013-09-10T10:40:00.000-07:002013-09-10T10:40:41.586-07:00The Russian proposal that might open the deadlock over the Syrian intervention or the rhetorical statement of John Kerry going against his own hidden agenda<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Book Antiqua', serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Nobody expected this turning after the joint press conference of the Foreign
Secretary of Great Britain William Hague and US Secretary of State John Kerry the
past 9</span><sup style="font-family: 'Book Antiqua', serif; line-height: 115%;">th</sup><span style="font-family: 'Book Antiqua', serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> of September 2013 in London. As it appears while answering
to a journalist question about which options did the government of Syria have,
to avoid the confrontation, Kerry said that if all chemical weapons were handed
over to international control, and eventually destroyed, an attack may be
reconsidered. As it seems Kerry never thought that such an idea could become
the springing board for the Russian Foreign Secretary Serguei Lavrov, to make
this very offer to his Syrian counterpart Wallid Mouallem. He also added to the
demand the need of subscribing the international Convention about Chemical Weapons
Prohibition. Only a few hours later the Syrian government acceded fully to it,
to the surprise of some of the current players, still looking how to promote an
intervention in the country. As Ban Ki-Moon openly acknowledged the Russian
plan, that in fact will need a great amount of effort of the UN, as a key
player, suddenly the US State Department said first that the demand was being
said in a rhetorical way by the US Secretary. Then Obama himself took himself
some time for this subject in one of his numerous interviews given that same
day on US television, that this same offer was “potentially positive”, but
needed to be absolutely authentic.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: 'Book Antiqua', serif; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">In any case what does seem self-evident is that far from reaching a
general consensus over the intervention in his last international tour through
Western Europe, John Kerry, with or without the intention, gave the magic words
to avoid it, giving way to a political solution. As it seemed there was none in
the opinion of the Obama administration. The fact that Russia took over the
argument, could weaken the argument of the inevitability of the intervention.
The relative concession that Obama had to give to the proposal is only degraded
by this powerful doubt, that anything coming from the Syrian Government isn´t
trustworthy. Furthermore the new events should not interfere with the upcoming quest
for the bill in the Congress concerning the limited intervention in Syria, to
be duly approved by enough Congressmen. This battle is the beginning of the war
the president is looking for, and having dropped the appearance neutrality this could
only go through a tough marketing of the war, which isn´t a normal one, just a
limited one, they say in the Hill. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">While the general ambiance in Washington is mainly around the Syrian issue
and as the next session in the Congress scheduled for this Wednesday, this has
been postponed again, only making the happening of the event more uncertain and
less immediate than expected. And again the French government has shown their
likeliness to follow the US path to war, still doesn´t see yet the positive
signs for doing this openly. Nor the British Prime Minister Cameron, after the
big blow of the Parliament, having lost in his seek for a bill to be passed,
allowing military intervention in Syria. Due to this limitation, he should be
out of the club of this new potential Coalition of the willing, still under the
Bush II administration. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">If Bashar was to show any collaboration in this new political draft, his
position would improve by far, as he will be having a whole new UN presence
working for the recollection of all Syrian chemical arsenal as a shield
preventing any hits from the sea. As for the starting consideration, that
bombing military infrastructure, specially containing Chemical Weapons, is far
from being helpful in order to insure the safeguard and control of those. If
Damascus allows the complete destruction of the existing material an important
argument would have been neutralized by Bashar Al-Assad, until the results of
the other UN team in Rotterdam, Netherlands gives finally its results of the
analysis of the alleged chemical attack of the past 21 August in the outskirts
of Damascus. These should either way give a reason to resolve the enigma around
the authorship and accountability that some countries have determined in
advance, as being the government forces of Assad. Despite the proven responsibility
of the rebels in the other alleged chemical attacks of Aleppo in march 2013 showed the link to the rebel forces, still
doesn´t dismantle in the eyes of the logical and self-evident impossibility of
the oppositional forces to handle these kind of devices. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Once the premise should be granted by the Syrians, it would be quite
difficult for Obama to promote his <i>limited
</i>war, as the main objectives would have been destroyed beforehand. Then
again in the midst of harsh political times for the president, when critics
inside are growing on the left of the Democrats as of the extreme right of the
Republicans, it seems quite obvious his approach to take over international
leadership. This will eventually require the back up of a certain majority in
both chambers, nevertheless it looks as if even his own party is not really
willing to go into another conflict, and not getting very much convinced of the
arguments given to the Congressmen and Representatives. As a matter of fact his
first front line seems to be inside the US, wining the approval for his
military quest. Then would come the real thing, if until then, any surprise
effect will be second to none. Even more, if there weren´t any chemical weapons
to hunt, isn´t this getting an obsession of the hawk side of Obama, who after
giving his smoothest side, even getting the Peace Nobel Price, now shows us his
Rambo side of his government. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">The true leadership of the new coalition might fall apart if the evil
Syrian were to be disarming for true. The statements on this of the Obama
himself, were that his offensive approach was the only way of getting a
consensus for a political solution. Once again war is just an extension of politics to the governing
class. If this had been his original inclination, why then doesn´t he aborts
his quest for the forsaken bill for intervention against any international law?
Still all of his statements show a poker face of someone who in the past had
shown people the new hope, the new leadership of the US. To the deception of
many his real intention are by far quite similar to the ones of his predecessor,
only the skin colour does make a certain difference to the eye. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-font-size: 11.0pt;">Finally if the planned attack was to occur, as soon as possible, the
latter conclusion would be that this new humanitarian interventionism isn´t open
to any autonomous and proactive enemies. They obey to an image, a mold of the
evil, but never give in to anything, as they are tyrants. Still this particular
tyrant shows quite a resistance, and is close to put the Us strategy at stake
with its own arguments. If the US are naturally world players, used to these
games, then how can someone understand how they are having such a hard time to actually
persuade even their closest partners to join them. Or are they running out of
arguments by now? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-65230111648203605002013-08-27T14:56:00.000-07:002013-08-27T15:05:20.456-07:00The failure of the Geneva II Agreements or the hidden agenda of Western Democracies towards another failed state in Syria<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="text-align: justify;">The Syrian issue has become once again the
topic of the major players of the so called International community. From the
war of statements to the plain war, as it seems lies a gap, which is lesser and
lesser. The alleged attack of Chemical weapons on civilian population occurred on
the past 21 August in the outskirts of the Syrian capital Damascus has been put
as a burden by both parties of this clash on the other one. It is said by the
Rebel´s side that the attack was undertaken by government forces, producing
around a 1300 death toll. On the other side, the government itself held the
opposition responsible for it, as it denied having used, nor even possessing
such weapons at all. The fact is that the tunnels which were apparently
discovered by Syrian regular soldiers showed evidence of used shells and
related material, of a toxic gas, that as a matter of fact affected the troops
who were present at the time, proving that at least for the time being, there
is presence of such poisonous armament. Despite the undergoing investigations
held by a UN group on Syrian soil, still in process, some players are going
ahead of time, accusing without any proof the </span><i style="text-align: justify;">undeniable </i><span style="text-align: justify;">responsibility of the regime, therefore considering all
options on the table, including the intervention by the USA. The US-army has
deployed two warships to the Eastern Mediterranean, close by the desired target,
before even any conclusions were drawn by the UN.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The Geneva II Peace Talks are now officially outdated
as it appears, as the Rebels have disclosed any possibility of them happening,
by openly refusing to sit at the negotiating table. The UK government has also
shown its confidence that as the Rebels couldn´t possibly uphold such weaponry;
it must have been done by the regime itself, still leaving a small doubt in
case. Anyhow Prime Minister David Cameron not only showed support to Obama´s intentions
to intervene on a limited scale in Syria by Thursday. He also called the
Parliament to gather together, to bring up a very much needed position in case
this week there should be any attacks on Syrian targets by the Us-army. As well
the French government has given its approval of these possible measures that
are said to <i>punish</i> the Syrian
president for its behavior before its own people. It certainly also is one of
the major supporters of the idea of arming on an official basis the rebels, who
seem to be losing the war on the ground. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The allies of the regime of Assad, mainly
Russia and China show no will to change sides. The Saudis having tried to bribe
the Russian government , this proved to be a big blow, as Moscow doesn´t seem
to change its mind before an offer of 15 billion dollars on the table. The
recent attempts to bring both sides on an agreement has once again failed, as
for some reason the SNC is unwilling to any concession which wouldn´t include
the downfall of Bashar Al-Assad as a precondition. Their most radical wing, the
Al-Nusra Front openly defied the regime, having intentions to establish even a separate
state within Syria under Sharia law. Some reports have even given a
non-official statement that Al-Nusra is in fact in possession of such weapons,
and would have been behind the events, that the UN is desperate to reveal. It
looks as if some in this game are really not interested in having the naked
truth seen at daylight.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has
said that all the options are within reach, until the President made a choice,
which would inevitably mean that by Thursday the US-army could be effectively intervening
in the scene, hitting strategic points within the country for 48 hours. These
operations that obviously don´t count on the granting of a UN resolution in its
support, would only be followed by some NATO-countries, including Turkey which
neighbors Syria in its Northern border. So again we see the Humanitarian war,
the Clinton doctrine used in the case of Kosovo back in 1998-1999. The reasons
are moral and ethical but certainly lack any real ground or justification,
beyond these considerations said before. Secretary of State John Kerry also
said that these <i>undeniable </i>atrocities
were only held accountable to the government, actions which it will have to
stand up to in front of the International Community. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Some other NATO members such as Germany or
Italy have been more reserved on this issue, as they say that without any
official UN mandate there would be no possibility of them being involved in
such actions. In facts the Italian Foreign Minister Emma Bonino said in a press
conference, that lacking such support, neither would they take part, nor would
they allow anyone to use their military facilities for this purpose. Germany
instead, with its past war experience, and considering that General elections
are coming up soon, no one really is eager to support that kind of venture,
fearful of losing popular support, hence the possibility to be in charge of taking
part of the next German government. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Russia on its side has shown its full allegiance
to the government of Damascus, as its president Vladimir Putin said that there
is a hidden agenda behind these accusations, and that Bashar Al-Assad isn´t
behind this, but the rebels. Its alliance is strong, as well as their presence
in the port of Tartus will remain as such, despite the growing military
tensions in the neighboring waters. In any case Russia will not give in to any
pressure to topple Assad, nor will it provide the legitimacy to the venture
underway. As things appear to be, the UN Security Council will not be in a position
to give any ground the intentions of Paris, London or Washington. An against
any odds, this will not hinder them in acting in their interest, with or
without the UN mandate, as long as the so-called <i>International Community</i>, themselves, are backing them up. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Nevertheless the results of the investigations
are being slow, and were furthermore delayed by snipers which shot on the UN
official vehicles under way to the places of evidence, which happened to be in
a region controlled by the armed opposition, this hasn´t frightened them to go
on in their crucial work to get the truth, as they postponed the next ride
until the damaged vehicle was to be replaced. If they achieve their goal is
uncertain, as the security in the rebel held zone is not granted by any means.
Unless the government recovered this area, then only there is a common ground
on which to work. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">This could be the beginning of the REAL war,
after the war of words. Neither the veto powers in the UN nor international law
will further avoid the confrontation, some players are eager to push forward.
No negotiations had any success, as for some reasons the SNC wasn´t able to
make the slightest concession to the government, instead they were looking to
accomplish their ultimate goal by all means, but never give in to anything.
That is why probably the Geneva II Agreement, as well as The Hague Summit which
was to be held in order to prepare the ground for the Geneva tables, between
Russia and the US will never become reality. The hawks in Washington will have
prevailed for now, until Obama takes the step that they are waiting for so
long, the intervention on the ground. They call this Nation-building, democratization
of any society, one size fits all. The history give us the proof that nor in
Kosovo, nor in Libya, nor Iraq, nor in the former Yugoslavia in general terms
this has proven to be possible. In the best of the results, there appears a <i>failed state </i>instead, with a chronic
need of foreign help on a long term basis. If this was to be the future of Syria under
the SNR, may the reader consider all sides, and see, if this is really such a
bright horizon for the Syrians, who have already withstood two years of continuous
wars and human and material losses. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">If this doesn´t touch the ones who want to
overthrow the Bashar regime, it is questionable just how far their deep
feelings of humanity are real, and how honest they are being towards letting
the Syrians be free within their own state to choose their faith and government.</span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-24718877827489751572013-08-20T13:53:00.001-07:002013-08-20T14:21:10.313-07:00The quest for the Geneva II Agreement or the Syrian deadlock put in evidence<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The war in
Syria also is within words in the medias, as the diplomatic activity in search
for the possible Geneva II agreement is still in sight, according at least to
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, as for the US Secretary of State, John
Kerry at the last meeting in Washington last 9<sup>th</sup> of August. Nonetheless
neither of the parts could actually agree on a fixed time and place, in which
to organize the summit. As for John Kerry, who said that the commitment of the
Syrian Opposition to attend the Swiss summit was clear, there was this
condition, that a transitional government was established, with no place for
the current Syrian president Bashar
Al-Assad. On his side, Lavrov stated that the Syrian government was determined to
attend the summit without preconditions. Still there were statements of the
Prime Minister, in which it was said, that no sovereignty was given into
consideration, in response to one of the demands of the opposition asking a
transitional government.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">In the next
week a bilateral meeting will take place at The Hague, Netherlands, where the
Russian Foreign Deputy Vice minister Guennadi Gatilov and Wendy Sherman, the US
Undersecretary of State will be treating the technical aspects of the Summit,
as for ratifying the reached agreement. The actual relations of both Foreign
Ministers are by far more productive, than those on the presidential level, as
Barack Obama has had a mixed result in his last meeting in Northern Ireland for
the past G8 meeting. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Meanwhile
the Saudi monarchy has been deploying its influence in the region, reaching to
open a corridor for weapons and money supply through Jordan, an action to which
the government of Amman was openly was opposed to. Still the transit through
the common borderline is more than active, maintaining thus a vital and
essential supply line to the Syrian opposition, after the town of Quassyr was taken back by the regular forces of
Syria, interrupting directly the transit to Lebanon. Also stands the fact that
outskirts of Aleppo are being taken back
by the Syrian government in recent weeks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The main
obstacle, as it seems in this major split inside the Syrian society, is due to
the fact, that probably the length of time has radicalized the positions to a
point of no return. In this way the government will not cease to face the <i>terrorist organizations</i> with all means
in his power, to recover the unity and peace in his country, as the opposition
refuses to deal with the Assad regime, and looks forward for a totally new
government. The question which remains, above any certainty expressed by the
Arab League representative, Lahdar
Brahimi, and many other spokesmen in this chain of events, if the two factions
opposed, could ever consider to implement a cease-fire. This has been tried in
the past, with poor success, even if it appeared, as if the regime of Damascus
was being at bay, and calm ruled for few hours, not even days. Still, the war dynamic
was back into its former confrontation very soon. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Syrian
Opposition has shown little unity on some specific terms, as if they could negotiate
face to face with Assad´s government. When in a strong moment, they seem very
willing to go to the negotiating table, but in times of drawback, they claim their
goal is to liberate the country, therefore, they won´t agree anymore. The
government has repeatedly shown its good will to go, always under the
assumption, that they are seen as an executive power, and being respected as
such. It is quite uncertain, how both aspirations and needs will be attended by
Brahimi and generally by the big powers in charge of the main round, Russia and
the USA. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> The back bone of the support of each side has
evidently a superpower and geostrategic reasons for its existence. The USA and
the Western European countries, at least most of them, are eager to establish a
new order on Syrian soil. Their main reason to do such, resembling once again
to the old cold war style, being to conquer power, driven by the People´s will,
or at least on their behalf, but with a hidden agenda, of splitting once again
the former Ottoman Empire nearly 100 years after its collapse and fragmentation. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The all so celebrated new freedom waves of the Arab Revolution have somehow
lost a bit of their freshness. The troops are being attended in increasing number by foreign fighters, coming from al
the Arab world, and furthermore from European nations, but by belief Muslims.
This brings into the debate, the Syrian national compound of the Free Syrian
Army, which at the most is composed by a minority of Syrians. Their dependency
on foreign help makes them quite helpless, when the supply lines fail. Still
their unity seems to rely on the non-definition of the future Syria to be built,
solely on the will of tumbling Assad from power. Therefore their statements
rarely are definitive or reliable on the long run, as they have changed
opinions several times, or simply failed to reach an agreement from within. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The president
Bashar Al-Assad has then again shown a good will of resistance, as worse times
than today have been in his two years struggle to recover the integrity of his
nation. Despite the relative isolation, his position has been kept, and
furthermore has recovered some places lost in the past to the opposition. Still
the economy has passed entirely to a war modus, as business as usual gets more
and more difficult to be done. He has
had to ask for a credit to Russia, as well as orders of weapons, as the turmoil
is being stretched in time. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Book Antiqua","serif"; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The deadlock
remains as it was, while the hope on the Geneva II Agreement dwells away the
longer it is postponed. Until then, every party in this civil war will stay on his position, waiting for the other to make a move. This chess game could
last very long, only time will tell</span>. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-62919571666291982342013-08-19T18:11:00.001-07:002013-08-19T19:47:57.187-07:00The Egyptian crisis in the point of no return or the crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Egypt has
lived the last week one of the deadliest clashes since the coup d´état in July,
as in general since its past revolution back in 2011. The pro-Morsi camp hasn´t
in fact acknowledged the ousting of the president Mohammed Morsi, and claim
his return to power immediately. The risen general Al Sisi chose to end the
everlasting sit-ins which threatened the security in the capital city Cairo,
and dissolved it unilaterally by security forces on August the 5<sup>th</sup>,
leading to bloodshed of those who remained until the very end, as interim prime
minister Hazem El-Beblawi showed again no mercy towards the remaining
protesters of the deposed Muslim Brotherhood, despite the general trend of
arrests against its supports and daily deaths. According to the interior
Ministry 622 persons were dead, as of other hundreds are wounded, among the
protesters, as of the state forces involved. According to sources of the Muslim
Brotherhood (MB) itself, the casualties were far higher, up to 2000 or more
that day.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Anyhow, the
diplomatic moves, for a dialogue and a reconciliatory policy, eventually
leading to an end to this ongoing violence is very far from sight. Different
political actors, such as German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, as
Katherine Ashton, representing the European Commission, the US Deputy Secretary
of State Bill Burns, were present at some time, trying to bring together both
positions currently fighting, the Muslim Brotherhood and the interim government.
All failures led to the point where the government ceased to consider any
further negotiation, and made that crackdown, in order to restore the Al-Nahda
square, the main university campus, as other spots in the city of Cairo,
leading to a curfew of at least 24 hours, which gave the city an impression of
normality. Nonetheless nothing seems resolved for now, as the newly elected
Vice-president Mohamed El-Baradei resigned as a consequence of it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The
political outcome, in which all political forces could be inserted, was definitely
blown away, as the Egyptian government has declared the Muslim Brotherhood a <i>terrorist organization</i>. Thus the MB has
also taken actions, as of going against government buildings and military
checkpoints, putting the security at stake for moments. The political outcome
will unlikely be as rosy as expected, when the interim president Mansour
declared the will of including anyone whom accepting the rule of law. The fact
being that the rule of law in Egypt is nothing more than a piece of paper, in
between ongoing fights and curfews. The martial law has been put back in place,
until further notice, and the general unrest in other provinces, such as the
bordering area in the Sinai Peninsula and in the southern regions, gives a hint
of the state of things in the North African country.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The
regional powers have taken very diverse positions, whereas Qatar has been a
massive supporter of the rule of president Morsi, and now probably finds itself
isolated, the Emirate of Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia,
have shown not only recognition to the junta, but also released very much
needed funds for the current government not to collapse. The US have long not
taken any position towards the shift of power, in order not to put in doubt the
military help provided to the Egyptian army. As early as today some comments are giving an idea, that this could be changing anytime
soon, but certain is, that the Obama administration has ignored the fact of
lack of a democratically elected government since July the 3<sup>rd</sup>, as a
strategy until the security of its embassy and its citizen became the real
issue to be concerned of. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The coup
just about a year from the arrival to power of Mohamed Morsi on the past 3 July an its aftermath seems to continue forever, as
none of the parties are willing to give in for now. Nor has the ousted president
Morsi been put back in power, nor the will of a major part of the population
has been taken into account, as for their sympathy for or links to the now illegalized
Moslem Brotherhood. If any result may appear, it would need the backup of a
regional power, and a return to normality, which isn´t the case for now at
least. If Morsi, after almost a month of detention was tailed in an express Judgment
and put into an unknown place under arrest, his family still claims what happened
was a hijacking of him as a matter of fact. Thou this isn´t going to change
much to his situation, it still shows the division within the society itself. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Thousands
of supporters of the MB remain in the aim of fighting, not wanting to renounce
to their goals, no matter how dim their chance may seem. As it seems only the
final crackdown of the former ruling party may finally bring some sort of
peace, even if it was severely dredged with blood. Too many weapons and
divisions are such, that the possible results slim to nearly one, the deadliest
of all, violence by itself. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2660885734804338358.post-71787331243123014532013-08-12T22:01:00.000-07:002013-08-12T22:02:31.942-07:00The second round of elections in Mali or the dilemma of ruling a failed state<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Mali just
had the second round of the presidential elections, which are bound to give the
sub-saharian country a new political framework. After the results of the first
round of the past 28 July 2013, none of the 25 candidates reached the 50%
score, therefore heading to the second round on the past Sunday 11 of August
instead. Out of the first round the two most voted candidates were confronted,
Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK) with 39.23% in the first place, and Soumaïla Cissé
with 19.40% of the ballot.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The pretty
tight electoral calendar, which was set just a month in advance, was in fact
one of the weak points of this event, as in the first place many thought that
either the country simply wasn´t in condition in such a short notice, and
second, that the Ouagadougou Agreements, which eventually led to a transitional
compromise between the government and
the MNLA (National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad) forces in the north, just
before, on the 19 June, on the promise of restraining from any activity, and
keeping away from urban centers like Kidal in the north, held ever since the
uprising by these Touareg rebel group. Nevertheless, other groups, some of them
linked to the Al-Qaeda network also operate in the area and in neighboring countries,
Niger, Algeria and Mauritania, who are also responsible for the major regional
unrest, in what was considered in the past as a safe Democratic safe haven in
western Africa. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The feasibility
of the elections were also put at stake for another quite powerful reason, that
many Malians eligible to vote were either outside the country, probably in some
of the many refugee camps in Niger and Burkina, among others, and couldn´t
possibly get their documentations on time for the voting, despite the major effort done by the
diplomatic representations of Mali, keen on closing that breach,but it appears, as
if at least 30% of the around 6.8 million voters was unable to produce such
documents on time. Then the fact that the task to observe this event gets into
a lot of practical issues, when it comes to cover the vast northern portion of
the country, specially areas which were for the past year under rebel rule, of
the MNLA or the MUJAO, allegedly in touch with the Al-Qaeda. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Anyhow, the
result being in process, the real reason behind this race against all odds is
in part due to the fact that France, the former ruling colonial power has been
present ever since January of the current year, looking to reunite the nation,
which was at the brink of collapse just a year ago. The French intervention,
given with the approval of the UN Security Council, had an expiry date, in
which Paris had to produce a viable, united country under an elected government.
This precondition gave the French government no other option than to force by
all means these events. As said before, this has been far from idealistic, and
still the African Union has given its green light, by stating that there were
clean and fair. The again the participation rate of the first round, which
accounted for around 50% could possibly not be reached this time, as not only
the enthusiasm had dropped since, and added that the climate didn´t really
help, with heavy rains by the time of the voting. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The result
by now looks quite positive for IBK, who presume the best result in general
terms, as it is the third time he stands
as a candidate, before in 2002 and in 2007, as for his experience as prime
minister under former president Amadou Toumani Touré (ATT) among different other positions of responsibility.
His next opponent, SoumaÏla Cissé lies with 19% in a much weaker position and
is expected to fall back in support, considering the clear advantage IBK has
shown in the past round, as for general
estimates of results. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">Mali is and
remains a country shaken up by several issues at the time. A rebellion in the
north, a coup d´état by the general Sanogo, whom by the way still remains in
his position of commander in chief. His active participation in the ousting of
ATT back in 2012 didn´t made him lose
his post, and as a matter of fact Dioncounda Traoré has had to deal with him
all along the line, until a new political framework was set. This is done
finally against all security and procedure matters, and in conditions far from
the norm. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">France is
the real player, as it is Paris who is the most interested partner
in seeing a newly elected president, no
matter if he can actually govern on the long term. The necessity of having a
positive outcome meant for Francois Hollande his reputation, as he entered this
war playground with little margin and a
big expectancy of heightening a bit his popularity in his own country. His bet
was quite risky, but had at least the propaganda of putting him as a commander
in chief of the French Army, and a position of strength he desperately needed,
while facing a dropping acceptance by his former voters. Ending the play is at
least as important, as commencing it. France does not need a permanent military
front, now that money is running short and the deficits eat up the dim growth
available. So it is clear, that the choice was made on a political basis, and
not with real economic figure.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">In the
following days the results may arise in the press, as soon as most of the
voting recounts as done. In any case with only two candidates left, the chosen
one will have a big margin of victory, capable of enabling him to put his house
in order. The duties are much, the money few, and the constrains quite
overwhelming. In this context, the next president of the Republic of Mali, has
more work than glory, whilst the military under the rule of general Amadou Sanogo, who is still in his throne, until further notice. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">May the future be bright for the Malian people in
this coming time, but the truth is that whomever gets this position, has to
prove the ability of handling quite a bit of a mess, which was left behind in
the past two years of rebellion and disorder. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18343580421175196096noreply@blogger.com0