The Syrian army’s recovery of Aleppo and defeat in Palmyra: A mixed report of victory and defeat side-by-side

On the 12th of December 2016 the Syrian Arab Army has advanced into the bulk of the former areas held by rebels and several offspring groups of the Al Nusra Front in the Eastern part of the city. Up to the last reports, there is a remaining enclave South-east of Aleppo. Still the smell of the final recovery of Syria’s second city and economic hub was being felt since yesterday, when local residents celebrated the retake of the city from the rebel forces.

Only weeks ago the Syrian regime controlled around 85% of the urban area. An ever advancing movement enabled the army to take district by district off the insurrectionists. Joined by allies such as the Syrian Kurds, the Hezbollah, and the Russians along them, the regime has recovered the whole metropolitan area, except of one remaining enclave of armed branches that did not follow the general withdrawal of their brothers in arms, all willing to draw back to the Idlib province under their control still.

The all so long awaited victory might have fallen short in the media, as simultaneously to that, the ancient city of Palmyra, fortress of the desert retaken last year, fell back to the Islamic State along some airbases in the area that had been secured in the past and taken in a very costly manner and with a lot of Russian military support. Now back under their control, the frontline has again shifted in the central area of the country.

Firstly there are generally speaking improvements in the city of Damascus, and its outskirts, which have been retaking some enclaves either by force or by an agreement of withdrawal. As such the major East Ghouta area has lost some territory to the government. It looks as if the security has seen important improvements in those regards.

A defeat and a victory, or the other way around sure gives a mixed result at the end of the day. Still the psychological impact of the surrender of the main city under insurgent control has had its share. The Idlib province and the areas close to the Syrian-Turkish border taken from the IS are there to stay, unless the army and its allies undertake a military enterprise starting east from Aleppo. The further they could approach the governmental held enclave of Fouad, the sooner the remaining northern bulk of rebel held territory could see heavy losses coming soon.

Nevertheless the battle is far from over, especially if you consider how a gain can be undone in matter of days or hours. Whence the IS continues its retreat in part of its Iraqi held territory in and around Mosul, many fighters are being shifted to the areas around Palmyra in a fashion, which evidently took the Syrians by surprise. Thus the retake might give more headlines for Damascus and Moscow, which now have been overshadowed by its recent fall.

While the UN Security Council overall seems to be quite unhappy for the success of Bashar Al-Assad, as it could be read by the numerous times that Russia and China have vetoed the resolutions in recent days and weeks, unsuccessfully urging for a truce in the Syrian city. Otherwise they always emphasized the humanitarian crisis, etc. in order to call into question the liberation itself. It looks as if a defeat of a “moderate rebel” always will be put into that light, while the battle of Mosul clearly is put forward without the slightest concern for the civilian or armed population among them. As the veto power of the Security Council today favours the Russian and Syrian side, the Western media have saturated the web with the view of the people trapped inside the war. There were allegations about massacres made by the Syrian Army, lacking any proof attached, and even the alleged executions of civilians. All these punchlines are solely there to distract of the obvious superiority of the Syrian army over the Western puppets eager to topple the evil dictator of Bashar Al-Assad.

Their failure comes short to the expectations made by their sponsors, one of which are the US-Americans. The new president-elect has clearly stated his wish to cease the supplies to these rebels despite that the Congress has been pushing a bill contemplating the further arms supplies and money to the insurgents on behalf of the US. This outgoing Democratic administration will do what remains within their reach to help those trapped inside this war. Let’s see how Trump and his Secretary of State nominee will think about this and other issues pending in January 2017.

The current conditions, in favour of the Moscow-Damascus axis are in the verge of reversing the trend and give the government the advantage it had been looking for. Then also the Russian ally has been pushing to maintain their presence in the Mediterranean Sea and with airbases in the coastal area. If the Western powers manage to rearm and the local forces regroup again in their frontlines, it could be again a long time before anyone can call any advance, may it be with the Islamic State or the motley-crew-like groups operating on the ground.

For now the major victory of Syria has been accomplished: the retake of the city of Aleppo and its outskirts. Now comes to see if the remaining areas are likely to fall too, or how long will it take to the Syrian forces to completely regain the sovereignty and territorial integrity that any country wishes to have.

The last tour of Obama to Europe before the new era of Trump

Now that the world has slowly got accustomed by the fact that Donald J. Trump is the president-elect of the United States of America, it seems reasonable to think that the international has shifted , or will so, beginning on the 21^st of January 2017, when he will make his oath as the 45^th president. Until then the outgoing lame duck Barack Obama will be making his last moves as a Democratic leader in the White House. One of them being his last trip to Europe, which started in Greece, where he met Prime Minster Alexis Tsipras, surrounded by a massive rally protesting against his visit. His trip which started in Hellenic soil, will lead him further to Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom.

For his farewell tour, Obama comes with a lot of assuring messages for his European counterparts, within a very delicate timeframe. The electoral promises held by the republican president-elect have raised some eyebrows in several capitals, and also at the NATO, led by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, who seems particularly concerned about the future of the organization he represents. If the new policies of Washington, under this new administration was to severe the expenditures into the organization, as being its main contributor, it could call seriously into question its permanence as such, and its viability militarily speaking. Thus the worries which Barack has to try to appease somehow in this last tour.

The Trade Agreements between the US and the European Union also went sour lately, again putting the feasibility into doubt, if ever the biggest consumer market, made up by both of them, were to be merged. This seems more remote than ever, considering the new ideas of protectionism rising in the Northern American nation.

Hence the new uncertainty remains whole, as of the state of affairs worldwide and in the US in late January of next year. Will there be the massive expelling of illegal aliens back to Mexico and Central America? Will the border be effectively be sealed off by a gigantic Wall from the Pacific Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico? Who will be paying for its expenses? And furthermore, who will be in charge of what on the Hill? Obama meanwhile takes advantage of the time remaining as a head of state, and will try to reach whatever intermediary result he can achieve, whether it may be in Syria, Yemen or elsewhere, before the new team will take over the controls. 

It seems as if the nominee for the post of Secretary of State has been between the former US Ambassador John R. Bolton, having served shortly before the United Nations under the administration of Georg W. Bush, or Rudolph Giuliani, former mayor of New York. Both of the have had hard stances regarding international affairs, but certainly the one more embedded into this is Bolton. He not only withdrew the signature of the Rome  Statute of the International Criminal Court on behalf of the US, but he also claimed several times his personal considerations about the UN, which he despises as a whole.

He dismisses the international law as such, seeing before anything else, the sole interests of the United States. As much as this can be of help to that purpose the UN is welcome to coexist in the world affairs. But beyond that it is as insignificant as can be. Combining the viewpoints of Trump himself, added to the likely Secretary of State Bolton, things might get sour in years to come.

Whomever shall step into these shoes, the new era has started worldwide. The former establishment, warrantied by the continuity of Clinton dynasty, has since decades set the rules to follow. It may be risky to try speculating about the contours of this new age to come. What is sure is that nothing is the way it used to be anymore, or will be.

This is a time of shifts and turns, which could take by surprise everyone. While waiting for the dust to settle, when everything will be clear to see, changes are being made as we speak within the team in the making of president-elect Donald J. Trump. Wait and see.