The Syrian issue has become once again the
topic of the major players of the so called International community. From the
war of statements to the plain war, as it seems lies a gap, which is lesser and
lesser. The alleged attack of Chemical weapons on civilian population occurred on
the past 21 August in the outskirts of the Syrian capital Damascus has been put
as a burden by both parties of this clash on the other one. It is said by the
Rebel´s side that the attack was undertaken by government forces, producing
around a 1300 death toll. On the other side, the government itself held the
opposition responsible for it, as it denied having used, nor even possessing
such weapons at all. The fact is that the tunnels which were apparently
discovered by Syrian regular soldiers showed evidence of used shells and
related material, of a toxic gas, that as a matter of fact affected the troops
who were present at the time, proving that at least for the time being, there
is presence of such poisonous armament. Despite the undergoing investigations
held by a UN group on Syrian soil, still in process, some players are going
ahead of time, accusing without any proof the undeniable responsibility of the regime, therefore considering all
options on the table, including the intervention by the USA. The US-army has
deployed two warships to the Eastern Mediterranean, close by the desired target,
before even any conclusions were drawn by the UN.
The Geneva II Peace Talks are now officially outdated
as it appears, as the Rebels have disclosed any possibility of them happening,
by openly refusing to sit at the negotiating table. The UK government has also
shown its confidence that as the Rebels couldn´t possibly uphold such weaponry;
it must have been done by the regime itself, still leaving a small doubt in
case. Anyhow Prime Minister David Cameron not only showed support to Obama´s intentions
to intervene on a limited scale in Syria by Thursday. He also called the
Parliament to gather together, to bring up a very much needed position in case
this week there should be any attacks on Syrian targets by the Us-army. As well
the French government has given its approval of these possible measures that
are said to punish the Syrian
president for its behavior before its own people. It certainly also is one of
the major supporters of the idea of arming on an official basis the rebels, who
seem to be losing the war on the ground.
The allies of the regime of Assad, mainly
Russia and China show no will to change sides. The Saudis having tried to bribe
the Russian government , this proved to be a big blow, as Moscow doesn´t seem
to change its mind before an offer of 15 billion dollars on the table. The
recent attempts to bring both sides on an agreement has once again failed, as
for some reason the SNC is unwilling to any concession which wouldn´t include
the downfall of Bashar Al-Assad as a precondition. Their most radical wing, the
Al-Nusra Front openly defied the regime, having intentions to establish even a separate
state within Syria under Sharia law. Some reports have even given a
non-official statement that Al-Nusra is in fact in possession of such weapons,
and would have been behind the events, that the UN is desperate to reveal. It
looks as if some in this game are really not interested in having the naked
truth seen at daylight.
The US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel has
said that all the options are within reach, until the President made a choice,
which would inevitably mean that by Thursday the US-army could be effectively intervening
in the scene, hitting strategic points within the country for 48 hours. These
operations that obviously don´t count on the granting of a UN resolution in its
support, would only be followed by some NATO-countries, including Turkey which
neighbors Syria in its Northern border. So again we see the Humanitarian war,
the Clinton doctrine used in the case of Kosovo back in 1998-1999. The reasons
are moral and ethical but certainly lack any real ground or justification,
beyond these considerations said before. Secretary of State John Kerry also
said that these undeniable atrocities
were only held accountable to the government, actions which it will have to
stand up to in front of the International Community.
Some other NATO members such as Germany or
Italy have been more reserved on this issue, as they say that without any
official UN mandate there would be no possibility of them being involved in
such actions. In facts the Italian Foreign Minister Emma Bonino said in a press
conference, that lacking such support, neither would they take part, nor would
they allow anyone to use their military facilities for this purpose. Germany
instead, with its past war experience, and considering that General elections
are coming up soon, no one really is eager to support that kind of venture,
fearful of losing popular support, hence the possibility to be in charge of taking
part of the next German government.
Russia on its side has shown its full allegiance
to the government of Damascus, as its president Vladimir Putin said that there
is a hidden agenda behind these accusations, and that Bashar Al-Assad isn´t
behind this, but the rebels. Its alliance is strong, as well as their presence
in the port of Tartus will remain as such, despite the growing military
tensions in the neighboring waters. In any case Russia will not give in to any
pressure to topple Assad, nor will it provide the legitimacy to the venture
underway. As things appear to be, the UN Security Council will not be in a position
to give any ground the intentions of Paris, London or Washington. An against
any odds, this will not hinder them in acting in their interest, with or
without the UN mandate, as long as the so-called International Community, themselves, are backing them up.
Nevertheless the results of the investigations
are being slow, and were furthermore delayed by snipers which shot on the UN
official vehicles under way to the places of evidence, which happened to be in
a region controlled by the armed opposition, this hasn´t frightened them to go
on in their crucial work to get the truth, as they postponed the next ride
until the damaged vehicle was to be replaced. If they achieve their goal is
uncertain, as the security in the rebel held zone is not granted by any means.
Unless the government recovered this area, then only there is a common ground
on which to work.
This could be the beginning of the REAL war,
after the war of words. Neither the veto powers in the UN nor international law
will further avoid the confrontation, some players are eager to push forward.
No negotiations had any success, as for some reasons the SNC wasn´t able to
make the slightest concession to the government, instead they were looking to
accomplish their ultimate goal by all means, but never give in to anything.
That is why probably the Geneva II Agreement, as well as The Hague Summit which
was to be held in order to prepare the ground for the Geneva tables, between
Russia and the US will never become reality. The hawks in Washington will have
prevailed for now, until Obama takes the step that they are waiting for so
long, the intervention on the ground. They call this Nation-building, democratization
of any society, one size fits all. The history give us the proof that nor in
Kosovo, nor in Libya, nor Iraq, nor in the former Yugoslavia in general terms
this has proven to be possible. In the best of the results, there appears a failed state instead, with a chronic
need of foreign help on a long term basis. If this was to be the future of Syria under
the SNR, may the reader consider all sides, and see, if this is really such a
bright horizon for the Syrians, who have already withstood two years of continuous
wars and human and material losses.
If this doesn´t touch the ones who want to
overthrow the Bashar regime, it is questionable just how far their deep
feelings of humanity are real, and how honest they are being towards letting
the Syrians be free within their own state to choose their faith and government.
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