Mali just
had the second round of the presidential elections, which are bound to give the
sub-saharian country a new political framework. After the results of the first
round of the past 28 July 2013, none of the 25 candidates reached the 50%
score, therefore heading to the second round on the past Sunday 11 of August
instead. Out of the first round the two most voted candidates were confronted,
Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta (IBK) with 39.23% in the first place, and Soumaïla Cissé
with 19.40% of the ballot.
The pretty
tight electoral calendar, which was set just a month in advance, was in fact
one of the weak points of this event, as in the first place many thought that
either the country simply wasn´t in condition in such a short notice, and
second, that the Ouagadougou Agreements, which eventually led to a transitional
compromise between the government and
the MNLA (National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad) forces in the north, just
before, on the 19 June, on the promise of restraining from any activity, and
keeping away from urban centers like Kidal in the north, held ever since the
uprising by these Touareg rebel group. Nevertheless, other groups, some of them
linked to the Al-Qaeda network also operate in the area and in neighboring countries,
Niger, Algeria and Mauritania, who are also responsible for the major regional
unrest, in what was considered in the past as a safe Democratic safe haven in
western Africa.
The feasibility
of the elections were also put at stake for another quite powerful reason, that
many Malians eligible to vote were either outside the country, probably in some
of the many refugee camps in Niger and Burkina, among others, and couldn´t
possibly get their documentations on time for the voting, despite the major effort done by the
diplomatic representations of Mali, keen on closing that breach,but it appears, as
if at least 30% of the around 6.8 million voters was unable to produce such
documents on time. Then the fact that the task to observe this event gets into
a lot of practical issues, when it comes to cover the vast northern portion of
the country, specially areas which were for the past year under rebel rule, of
the MNLA or the MUJAO, allegedly in touch with the Al-Qaeda.
Anyhow, the
result being in process, the real reason behind this race against all odds is
in part due to the fact that France, the former ruling colonial power has been
present ever since January of the current year, looking to reunite the nation,
which was at the brink of collapse just a year ago. The French intervention,
given with the approval of the UN Security Council, had an expiry date, in
which Paris had to produce a viable, united country under an elected government.
This precondition gave the French government no other option than to force by
all means these events. As said before, this has been far from idealistic, and
still the African Union has given its green light, by stating that there were
clean and fair. The again the participation rate of the first round, which
accounted for around 50% could possibly not be reached this time, as not only
the enthusiasm had dropped since, and added that the climate didn´t really
help, with heavy rains by the time of the voting.
The result
by now looks quite positive for IBK, who presume the best result in general
terms, as it is the third time he stands
as a candidate, before in 2002 and in 2007, as for his experience as prime
minister under former president Amadou Toumani Touré (ATT) among different other positions of responsibility.
His next opponent, SoumaÏla Cissé lies with 19% in a much weaker position and
is expected to fall back in support, considering the clear advantage IBK has
shown in the past round, as for general
estimates of results.
Mali is and
remains a country shaken up by several issues at the time. A rebellion in the
north, a coup d´état by the general Sanogo, whom by the way still remains in
his position of commander in chief. His active participation in the ousting of
ATT back in 2012 didn´t made him lose
his post, and as a matter of fact Dioncounda Traoré has had to deal with him
all along the line, until a new political framework was set. This is done
finally against all security and procedure matters, and in conditions far from
the norm.
France is
the real player, as it is Paris who is the most interested partner
in seeing a newly elected president, no
matter if he can actually govern on the long term. The necessity of having a
positive outcome meant for Francois Hollande his reputation, as he entered this
war playground with little margin and a
big expectancy of heightening a bit his popularity in his own country. His bet
was quite risky, but had at least the propaganda of putting him as a commander
in chief of the French Army, and a position of strength he desperately needed,
while facing a dropping acceptance by his former voters. Ending the play is at
least as important, as commencing it. France does not need a permanent military
front, now that money is running short and the deficits eat up the dim growth
available. So it is clear, that the choice was made on a political basis, and
not with real economic figure.
In the
following days the results may arise in the press, as soon as most of the
voting recounts as done. In any case with only two candidates left, the chosen
one will have a big margin of victory, capable of enabling him to put his house
in order. The duties are much, the money few, and the constrains quite
overwhelming. In this context, the next president of the Republic of Mali, has
more work than glory, whilst the military under the rule of general Amadou Sanogo, who is still in his throne, until further notice.
May the future be bright for the Malian people in
this coming time, but the truth is that whomever gets this position, has to
prove the ability of handling quite a bit of a mess, which was left behind in
the past two years of rebellion and disorder.
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